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The 2015/16 Drought in Kruger National Park
| Author: | Smit, I.P.J. (SANParks Scientific Services) and Bond, W.J. (University of Cape Town) |
| Language: | |
| Topic: | Climate Change |
| Type: | Case studies |
| Last updated: | 26 May 2026 |
Background and aim of study
The aim of this quantitative assessment and resulting report is to collect and collate observations and reflections from various colleagues who have lived and/or worked extensively in the Kruger National Park (KNP) and surrounding areas during the 2015/2016 drought. This is in order to compliment various monitoring and research projects which were specifically set up or analysed in such a way as to better understand the effects of the past drought (typically studies that have collected pre and post drought data). Although research projects that specifically focused on the drought are very valuable (some have been published and others are still in the process of being published), many facets of the drought were not studied.
Therefore, although rigorous scientific studies are critical for better understanding the effects of droughts, other methods of “learning” from droughts can also increase understanding of these large infrequent disturbances. One such method of “learning” is through general observation from astute observers that lived and/or spend considerable time in the veld (in this case in the Greater KNP) during a drought. It is believed that many ecological lessons, interesting ideas, valuable insights and truly remarkable natural history observations can be harnessed from collecting these largely ad hoc and non-systematic observations. It is believed that some of these observations may also be helpful for scientists in future to formulate and postulate theories regarding the functioning and role of droughts, and/or spark ideas for setting up more specific and rigorous monitoring projects in anticipation of future droughts. Considering the fact that the frequency and intensity of droughts may increase in future, it is important to make optimal use of droughts as learning events in order to increase our understanding of the role of droughts and in order to inform management actions if and where appropriate.
The 2015/16 drought was one of Kruger's most severe ecological events, driven by a strong El Niño. Central and southern areas were hardest hit, with Skukuza recording its warmest summer since 1960 and more days above 40°C than any previous year.
It was a "grazer-type" drought — woody vegetation stayed leafed while herbaceous biomass almost vanished. A significant March 2016 rainfall event provided temporary relief and likely reduced mortality among impala, kudu, and warthog.
The biggest mammal casualties were hippos and buffalo. Pre-drought surveys counted around 375 hippos in the Nwanetsi area; only 15 remained afterwards. Buffalo populations fell from roughly 3,000 to 1,000 between 2015 and 2017, with almost no calves born in 2016. Elephant populations remained largely stable. Large herbivore mortalities were generally lower than during the 1991/92 drought, partly because artificial waterholes had been closed and river flows were better managed.
Disease outbreaks intensified, including the first recorded cases of TB in white rhino and wild elephants, distemper in wild dogs, and encephalomyocarditis in elephants. Animal concentration around shrinking water sources accelerated transmission.
Invertebrate, reptile, and insect populations collapsed, with slow multi-year recoveries. Post-drought eruptions of rodents, red-billed queleas, and certain insects followed the return of rains.
Woody vegetation suffered patchy but significant mortality, with some large tree deaths occurring two to three years after the drought due to groundwater decline and termite debarking. Recovery of herbaceous layers was rapid, often shifting towards more palatable grass species.
The drought reinforced the value of large, contiguous protected areas as refugia, and confirmed that adaptive management — including better river flow regulation and waterhole closures — meaningfully improves ecosystem resilience during extreme events.
