The Limpopo River Basin System: Climate Impacts and the Political Economy

Enhancing transboundary water and biodiversity management within the constraints of climate change will enhance the resilience of the ecosystems and people in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). That is the objective of the Resilience in the Limpopo Basin (RESILIM) Program. A previous study undertook a risk and vulnerability hotspot analysis, which captures the spatial variability of different biophysical, biological and socio-­‐economic factors into models of risk and vulnerability. Then, through modelling, a combination of exposure and sensitivity, eight hotspots were identified that described particular problem areas. These are 1) the Upper Limpopo River basin, on the Botswana / South Africa border, 2) Pretoria North / Moretele, 3) the Shashe / Limpopo rivers confluence at the border of South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe, 4) the upper Mzingwane River basin in Zimbabwe, 5) the Soutpansberg, 6) the Pafuri triangle border area of Zimbabwe, Mozambique and South Africa, 7) the Lebowa / Middle Olifants River catchment, and 8) the Chokwe – Lower Limpopo River floodplain in Mozambique. This report produces the research and analysis of the biophysical, economic and socio-­‐political system which characterizes each hotspot and gives rise to its identified vulnerability.

This report produces the research and analysis of the biophysical, economic and socio-­‐political system which characterizes each hotspot and gives rise to its identified vulnerability. It further analyzes the politic economy governing the LRB as a system, providing a political economy context to the identified hotspots and potentially contributing to the status of each as a ‘tipping point’, or sub-­‐system that has crossed or is likely to cross a critical threshold. The organizing principle of the impact assessment work on each hotspot is what is called the 1ˢᵗ to 4ᵗʰ Order Impacts Framework. This is a cascade of impacts and linkages between basic climate parameters (1st order), the resulting physical and chemical processes in the physical and biotic environment (2nd order), the resulting ecosystem services and production potential (3rd order), and finally the resultant social and economic conditions (4th order), which arise. Feedbacks exist between all four orders.

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• The Limpopo River Basin System: Climate Impacts and the Political Economy